By GamGem ResearchLast updated 21 Oct 2026
Brawler Blast in Brawl Stars — How It Works
A Brawler Blast opening offers one brawler 50% of the time, two 28.57%, three 14.29% and four 7.14% (Supercell, 1 Sep 2026). Expected Gem Fragments per opening: 4.22, calculated by GamGem from Supercell’s fragment table.
Verdict · I want one specific Brawler17.9% per opening for Squeak; a wrong brawler still adds to your collection.
Top outcome fingerprints
Squeak—exact 17.86%
Cosmo—exact 15.32%
Vince—exact 13.13%Simulation inputs
Owned 28 of 43 Mythic means 15 targets left. Your pool holds 10 of them.
Wrong-brawler cost meter
Your ten-target pool
You have 15 unowned; only 10 are in the pool at a time.
Simulated distribution
Choice quality comparison
A 2-choice window raises your chance for Squeak from 10% to 20%. Choices help most when your pool is large.
Fragment odds per opening
Rows sum to 99.98%; the simulation scales them to 100%. Values are transcribed from Supercell’s table.
Conversion ladder
Brawler Blast — what each target count gives
Reward caps
Spending advice
Your plan matches the calculated advice.
Choice-window planner
| Openings | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chance for target | 17.9% | 38.2% | 55.9% | 88.2% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Expected fragments | 4 | 13 | 21 | 42 | 63 | 84 |
| Credits needed | 1,900 | 5,700 | 9,500 | 19,000 | 28,500 | 38,000 |
Official mix: half of openings offer a choice. If a window appears, take the first name on your priority list that is shown.
Evidence chips
Why this recommendation?
Squeak is in your pool of 10. Each opening gives 17.9%; about 5.4 openings on average. With 3960 Credits you can open 2 times. Tolerance for a wrong brawler: med.
Sources: 1, 2, 3, 5
Explain simply
Squeak is in your pool of 10. Each opening gives 17.9%; about 5.4 openings on average. With 3960 Credits you can open 2 times. Tolerance for a wrong brawler: med.
Sources: 1, 2, 3 · the numbers do not change, only the words.
Optimal vs learnable
My opening ledger
Record real openings here. Stored only on this device.
Rule updates
Chance per brawler
| Brawler | Rarity | Status | Random | 2-choice | 3-choice | 4-choice | Avg frags | Credits / open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squeak | Mythic | Target 1 | 10.00% | 20.00% | 30.00% | 40.00% | — | 1,900 |
| Cosmo | Mythic | Target 2 | 10.00% | 17.78% | 23.33% | 26.67% | — | 1,900 |
| Vince | Mythic | Target 3 | 10.00% | 15.56% | 17.50% | 16.67% | — | 1,900 |
| Other Mythic (12) | Mythic | Not target | 5.83% | 3.89% | 2.43% | 1.39% | — | 1,900 |
Random and choice columns are the chance of that brawler given that type of opening. "Other" rows are per brawler. Exact from the rules; average fragments from the simulation.
Official odds table
Brawler Blast gives one brawler per opening, with a choice window in half of openings, plus 1 to 17 Gem Fragments (Supercell, Aug 2026 notes).
| Fragments | Chance | This or fewer |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.02% | 12.02% |
| 2 | 14.03% | 26.05% |
| 3 | 16.03% | 42.08% |
| 4 | 20.04% | 62.12% |
| 5 | 14.03% | 76.15% |
| 6 | 10.02% | 86.17% |
| 7 | 6.01% | 92.18% |
| 8 | 2.2% | 94.38% |
| 9 | 1.8% | 96.18% |
| Fragments | Chance | This or fewer |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 1% | 97.18% |
| 11 | 0.8% | 97.98% |
| 12 | 0.6% | 98.58% |
| 13 | 0.4% | 98.98% |
| 14 | 0.2% | 99.18% |
| 15 | 0.2% | 99.38% |
| 16 | 0.2% | 99.58% |
| 17 | 0.4% | 99.98% |
Rows sum to 99.98%; the simulation scales them to 100%. Values are transcribed from Supercell’s table.
Supercell · Release Notes August 2026 · retrieved 2026-10-16Replay one opening
Each step shows the rule it uses. Random steps are marked.
- 1Pool built: 10 unowned Mythic targets.Rule: up to 10 unowned brawlers; blanks fill the rest (Supercell, Aug 2026 notes).
Pool diagram
Ask about your odds
Pool shrink timeline
Chance per opening for Squeak after each wrong brawler
Owning more changes the odds
| Owned | Left | Per opening | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 43 | 4.2% | 15.8 |
| 1 | 42 | 4.3% | 15.4 |
| 2 | 41 | 4.4% | 15.1 |
| 5 | 38 | 4.7% | 14.0 |
| 10 | 33 | 5.4% | 12.2 |
| 15 | 28 | 6.4% | 10.4 |
| 20 | 23 | 7.8% | 8.6 |
| 25 | 18 | 9.9% | 6.8 |
| 28 | 15 | 11.9% | 5.7 |
| 30 | 13 | 13.7% | 5.0 |
| 35 | 8 | 22.3% | 3.2 |
| 40 | 3 | 57.1% | 1.5 |
Expected = openings until Squeak. Assumes you do not know the pool when more than 10 are left.
Watchdog and conflicts
Where the figures come from
Official notes and the wiki only. Forum posts and opinions are not evidence for the odds, so none are used here.
Edge cases and methodCaps, rounding, pool state and luck
One brawler left
No choice can appear; the opening gives that brawler.
Fewer than 10 unowned
Blank slots fill the pool. They are removed first and do not lower fragment odds.
Newly released brawlers
New brawlers may first come through Brawler Box events. Their Blast availability for your account is not established.
Unlocked elsewhere first
If another reward unlocks a pool brawler, it leaves your targets and the pool refills.
Rounded percentages
The fragment rows total 99.98%. The settings menu chooses scaling to 100% or leaving 0.02% unassigned.
Simulator assumptions
Pool members are equally likely; choice windows draw distinct targets; your priority order picks from a window. Runs in your browser, no account.
Questions people ask about this page
How does Brawler Blast work?
- Each opening draws from up to 10 brawlers you do not own yet, all of one rarity. In 50% of openings you get one brawler at random; otherwise you choose between two, three or four (28.57%, 14.29% and 7.14% of openings). Every opening also gives Gem Fragments (Supercell, Release Notes August 2026).
What are the odds of getting the brawler I want?
- Supercell publishes per-opening odds only: how often a choice window appears and how big it is. Your chance for one specific brawler depends on how many unowned brawlers of that rarity are left, so the calculator works it out from your own count.
How many Gem Fragments does one opening give?
- Between 1 and 17. The most common result is 4 fragments at 20.04% of openings. The expected value is 4.22 fragments, calculated by GamGem from Supercell’s table.
How many Credits does a brawler cost?
- By rarity: Rare 160, Super Rare 430, Epic 925, Mythic 1,900, Legendary 3,800, Ultra 5,500 (Supercell, Release Notes August 2026).
Is Brawler Blast worth it?
- It depends on your target and on how many unowned brawlers of that rarity are left. With many left, a specific brawler can take many openings; with few left, each opening is likelier to be the one you want. Enter your rarity, your owned count and your Credits in the calculator to see the expected number of openings.